Reconstruction of GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies using Multi-Layer Perceptrons for South Indian River basins.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission began in 2002 and ended in June 2017. GRACE applications are limited in their ability to study long-term water cycle behavior because the data is limited to a short period, i.e., from 2002 to 2017. In this study, we aim to reconstruct (1960-2002) GRACE total water storage anomalies (TWSA) to obtain a continuous TWS time series from 1960 to 2016 over four river basins of South India, namely the Godavari, Krishna, Cauvery and Pennar River basins, using Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP). The Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess procedure (STL) method is used to decompose GRACE TWSA and forcing datasets into linear trend, interannual, seasonal, and residual parts. Only the de-seasoned (i.e., interannual and residual) components are reconstructed using the MLP method after the linear trend and seasonal components are removed. Seasonal component is added back after reconstruction of de-seasoned GRACE TWSA to obtain complete TWSA series from 1960 to 2016. The reconstructed GRACE TWSA are converted to groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) and compared with nearly 2000 groundwater observation well networks. The results conclude that the MLP model performed well in reconstructing GRACE TWSA at basin scale across four river basins. Godavari (GRB) experienced the highest correlation (r = 0.96) between the modelled TWSA and GRACE TWSA, followed by Krishna (KRB) with r = 0.93, Cauvery (CRB) with r = 0.91, and Pennar (PCRB) with r = 0.92. The seasonal GWSA from GRACE (GWSAGRACE) correlated well with the GWSA from groundwater observation wells (GWSAOBS) from 2003 to 2016. KRB exhibited the highest correlation (r=0.85) followed by GRB (r=0.81), PCRB (r=0.81) and CRB (r=0.78). The established MPL technique could be used to reconstruct long-term TWSA. The reconstructed TWSA data could be useful for understanding long-term trends, as well as monitoring and forecasting droughts and floods over the study regions.

Climate change impacts on conventional and flash droughts in the Mekong River Basin.

Recent drought events in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) have resulted in devastating environmental and economic losses, and climate change and human-induced alterations have exacerbated drought conditions. Using hydrologic models and multiple climate change scenarios, this study quantified the future climate change impacts on conventional and flash drought conditions in the MRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models were applied to estimate long-term drought indices for conventional and flash drought conditions over historical and future periods (1966-2099), using two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5), and four climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For the conventional drought assessment, monthly scale drought indices were estimated, and pentad-scale (5 days) drought indices were computed for the flash drought evaluations. There were overall increases in droughts from the SWAT model for the conventional drought conditions and overall decreases from the VIC model. For the flash drought conditions, the SWAT-driven drought indices showed overall increases in drought occurrences (up to 165%). On the contrary, the VIC-driven drought indices presented decreases in drought occurrences (up to -44%). The conventional and flash drought evaluations differ between these models as they partition the water budget, specifically soil moisture differently. We conclude that the proposed framework, which includes hydrologic models, various emission scenarios, and projections, allows us to assess the various perspectives on drought conditions. Basin countries have differential impacts, so targeted future adaptation strategy is required.

Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin.

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and AquaCrop models were used to evaluate long-term drought indices and rainfed rice yields under historical and future climate conditions (1954-2099) with four climate models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We found that rice yield might increase (24-43%) due to the elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (+ 34.3 to + 121.9%) and increases in precipitation. Contrastingly, considerable decreases in rice yield up to 1.5 ton/ha in the Vietnam Central High Plain (VCHP) region could be expected resulting from reduced precipitation by about 34% during drought years. To avert any major food crisis, an expansion of irrigation areas could be required to compensate for the expected reduction in rice yields. We conclude that a framework combining hydrology and crop models to assess climate change impacts on food production is key to develop adaptation strategies in the future.

Tracking seasonal and monthly drought with GRACE-based terrestrial water storage assessments over major river basins in South India.

Drought is a complex natural hazard that affects ecosystems and society in several ways and it is important to quantify drought at the river basin scale. Assessment of drought requires both hydrological observations and simulation models as the data are generally scarce. Therefore, we use remote sensing products to help understand drought conditions in four basins in South India. This study analysed the correlation among five drought indices for four seasons: gravity recovery and climate experiment - drought severity index (GRACE-DSI), standardized precipitation index (SPI), self-calibrated palmer drought severity index (sc_PDSI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and combined climatologic deviation index (CCDI) with GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) using the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) from 2002 to 2016 over the Godavari, Krishna, Pennar, and Cauvery river basins. Basin scale drought events are evaluated using CCDI, GRACEDSI, sc_PDSI, SPI12, and SPEI12 at seasonal and monthly time scale. Characteristics of drought event analysis are calculated for CCDI monthly. The results showed that GRACE TWS is highly correlated with GRACE-DSI, CCDI, and sc_PDSI. Seasonally, high spatial correlations between CCDI and GRACE-DSI with GRACE TWS are evident for all the river basins. Additionally, correlation is found to exist between sc_PDSI and GRACE TWS as soil moisture content is an operating variable between them. The 12-month SPI and SPEI correlated better with GRACE TWS than the 3 and 6-month periods. Among the four basins, droughts in the Krishna Basin lasted 29 months, longer than in the rest of the basins between 2003 and 2005. Overall, CCDI and GRACE-DSI indices are found to be effective for examining and evaluating the drought conditions at the basin scale.

A comprehensive analysis of interseasonal and interannual energy and water balance dynamics in semiarid shrubland and forest ecosystems.

Accurate estimation of ecosystem-scale land surface energy and water balance has great importance in weather and climate studies. This paper summarizes seasonal and interannual fluctuations of energy and water balance components in two distinctive semiarid ecosystems, sagebrush (SB) and lodgepole pine (LP) in the Snake River basin of Idaho. This study includes 6 years (2011-2016) of eddy covariance (EC) along with modeled estimates. An analysis of the energy balance indicated a higher energy balance ratio (0.88) for SB than for LP (0.86). The inclusion of canopy storage (CS) increased the association between turbulent fluxes and available energy in LP. Green vegetation fraction (GVF) significantly controlled evapotranspiration (ET) and surface energy partitioning when available energy and soil moisture were not limited. Seasonal water balance in the Budyko framework showed severe water-limited conditions in SB (6-9 months) compared to LP (6-7 months). Based on the validated Noah land surface model estimates, direct soil evaporation (ESoil) is the main component of ET (62 to 79%) in SB due to a large proportion of bare soil (60%), whereas at the lodgepole pine site, it was transpiration (ETran, 42-52%). A complementary ratio (CR) analysis on ET and potential ET (PET) showed a strong asymmetric CR in SB, indicating significant advection. Both SG and LP showed strong coupling between soil moisture (SM) and air temperature (Ta). However, a weak coupling was observed in SB when the soil was dry and Ta was high. This weak coupling was due to the presence of net advection. The results presented here have a wider application: to help us understand and predict the survival, productivity, and hydroclimatology of water-limited ecosystems.

Spatially explicit pollutant load-integrated in-stream E. coli concentration modeling in a mixed land-use catchment.

Pathogen contamination is a major cause of surface water impairment in the United States, and fecal bacteria levels are typically used to evaluate microbial loading in bodies of water. Environmental models are considered a useful tool for evaluating watershed management practices. In this study, we assessed E. coli contamination of the Upper Stroubles Creek, Virginia, USA using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study area has been declared an impaired body of water due to recent bacterial contamination. Bacterial source characterizations play a critical role in such modeling exercises and especially in the case of non-point sources. As the SWAT model involves bacteria load estimation at a Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level, we use the Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) for our E. coli load estimations. We also evaluate current approaches to the measurement of bacterial interactions of the sediment-water interface using SWAT and the frequent measurements of streambed E. coli concentrations. For the simulation of in-stream E. coli concentrations using estimates drawn from SELECT without (with) sediment bacteria resuspension-deposition, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of -0.41 to 0.34 (-0.19 to 0.36) are found. Moreover, in-stream E. coli concentrations measured at flow duration intervals show that the model frequently overestimates mid-range flows while underestimating low-range flows even with model improvements. The use of high-resolution E. coli loads and the consideration of sediment bacteria resuspension-deposition processes, generated higher E. coli concentrations for forested areas compared to those of urban and pasture lands, suggesting the importance of using detailed bacteria load estimations and land use information when assessing E. coli distribution in the environment.

Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate.

Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC-MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC-MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC-MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of -0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative-forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater-surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably.

Description of future drought indices in Virginia.

This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI) for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature) were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.

Large wind shift on the great plains during the medieval warm period.

Spring-summer winds from the south move moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Plains. Rainfall in the growing season sustains prairie grasses that keep large dunes in the Nebraska Sand Hills immobile. Longitudinal dunes built during the Medieval Warm Period (800 to 1000 years before the present) record the last major period of sand mobility. These dunes are oriented NW-SE and are composed of cross-strata with bipolar dip directions. The trend and structure of the dunes record a drought that was initiated and sustained by a historically unprecedented shift of spring-summer atmospheric circulation over the Plains: Moist southerly flow was replaced by dry southwesterly flow.